AFC West Preview

1. San Diego Chargers 12-4: Obviously, anyone who doesn't pick the Chargers to win this division is just trying to put on their best Skip Bayless act and pick the other side just to be obstinate. I hate to say it as I am definitely a Chargers hater, but on paper, this is a top-3 team in the AFC and a bonafide super bowl contender. I have a feeling that they are going to end up as a better team than the Patriots this year, though you have to give the healthy Patriots the nod before the season starts.

A healthy Tomlinson, an emerging WR in Vincent Jackson, a finally healthy Antonio Gates and one of the best young quarterbacks in the league - Philip Rivers - entering his prime. The defense should also be very good. Having to play the NFC East is probably going to keep their record from being best in the AFC, but they still likely will go 7-1 or 8-0 against the division and should be good enough to secure the 2 or 3 seed. The sky is the limit for this team and if they remain healthy and get themselves a bye, I think this is very likely the AFC representative this year.

2. Kansas City Chiefs 7-9: A brilliant move getting Scott Pioli, former Patriots VP (or whatever), is probably going to pay dividends sooner rather than later. While I think the Matt Cassel move was very questionable, this team has spent some draft picks attempting to re-build what was once the best offensive line in the NFL. Trading off Tony Gonzalez will prove to be a good move in the long run and they have some emerging offensive players in RB Jamaal Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe. Pioli knows how to construct a team and while I don't expect the re-build to be complete until 2 years from now, the seeds have already been planted and this stripped down version of last years team will likely be much improved.

Oh yeah, Larry Johnson might be dead.

3. Denver Broncos 6-10: If it wasn't for the Brandon Marshall situation I probably would have had them above the Chiefs. I didn't exactly like the Cutler move, and I think the Bears will benefit greatly from it, but I think the Broncos were going to bounce back this year. It would be hard for their defense to repeat just how bad it was last year and on paper they have some decent players. If Brandon Marshall plays for them I think they may be a bit of a "surprise" team that goes 8-8 as they have ample threats at wideout, a possibly very good rookie RB in Knowshon Moreno (as well as guys like Correll Buckhalter, who is fragile, but ultimately all these guys are better than the stiffs they were picking up from the local grocery stores last year). I'm not an Orton guy, but give him time and some weapons and he'll be able to win you some games. Even without Marshall I think this team will be less of a joke than most people expect. I think they'll compete...and possibly even moreso if they trade off Marshall who is putting on his best TO routine. Obviously the seeds are there for a complete blow-up, but I think Denver might have a bit of a push in them.

4. Oakland Raiders 3-13: I really want to say that this is the year it comes together for the Raiders. For the sake of R-Mania, I pull for them. As I look at the roster and try to put together an argument for them though, I just can't do it. Their star cornerback (Nnamdi Asomugha) is out for the first couple weeks. Their quarterback and face of the franchise is apparently just holding off Jeff Garcia for the starting job. They have no wideouts that should be good this year. And a quarterback who is probably terrible. They do have a nice RB duo in Fargas and McFadden, but can this offensive line finally be any good? To be fair, it has been lightyears better the past couple years than it was 3 years ago. But still, unless this line turns into a dominant force and unless those athletes on defense finally turn it into the unit it appeared it could be three years ago..this team looks like a cellar dweller yet again.

It wouldn't shock me if they finally get this thing headed in the right direction and out-kick KC and Denver..and I hope they do..but I'm certainly not betting on it.

AFC West Fantasy Sleeper:
RB Darren McFadden - Not being drafted as a top back, but with so few options, Oakland is going to want him to get as many touches as possible every game. While the offense could certainly hurt him, it also might add to his value as a receiver out of the backfield. McFadden is a threat to take it the distance every time he touches it and right now, he is probably being under-drafted.
WR Vincent Jackson - Another guy who maybe isn't a "sleeper" per se, but is being under-drafted. V Jackson is a perfect breakout player waiting to happen. Good receiver with great size who has quietly been very productive entering his prime on what should be a high powered offense. Draft him after a bunch of WR2's in your league and get yourself a WR1.

Fantasy Stud:
WR Dwayne Bowe - Bowe is another WR breakout candidate. Perhaps more risky than Jackson on an offense with limited options, but for that same reason even more upside. Bowe looks very probable to break out and might end up out-producing Calvin Johnson in my opinion.
RB Ladanian Tomlinson - He slipped to the 10th pick in my draft. There is no one else that deserves to go ahead of him outside AP, MJD, Forte, Jackson and maybe maybe maybe Moss. DOn't be scared about his pre-season form.

Fantasy Bust:
RB Larry Johnson - No shock here, but he looks dead.
WR Chris Chambers - Don't think he's going to see that many balls with so many other options. Prone to drops and I could conceivably see him phased out as an option with some of the slot guys either out-producing him and/or taking his job.