NFC South Preview

The NFC South is a very interesting division comprised of some very solid football teams.

Last year the Panthers took home the division with a 12-4 record, 2nd place was the surprise Atlanta Falcons at 11-5, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 9-7 and the New Orleans Saints were 8-8. Overall last year we saw a very competitive division with a lot of solid teams. They sent two teams the playoffs, and if I am not mistaken they had a chance for a third with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they didn't lose the last week of the season to the Raiders no less. This year should be another tight race.

1. Carolina Panthers (11-5)

As much as the Panthers bore me, and they seem to continue to age every year, they always play consistent football. If Jake Delhomme can not fall apart the way he did last year, specifically in the playoffs they should be the favorite over the Falcons to win the division again. They have a great offensive line with Jordan Gross and Jeff Utah anchoring the tackles. D'angelo Williams had a torrid 2nd half of the season last year and has vaulted himself into a top 5 running back in many fantasy drafts. His backup, and former Oregon Duck (bet they are missing him now after being running backless after there starter dropped a bomb on Boise St.) is limping into the season, but should be ready to roll fairly soon.

Steve Smith has shown no reason he won't continue to be the unbelievable WR he has been over the past 5 years, but for some reason he has not been hyped up as one of the best WR going into the season. He has slid to the 2nd or 3rd tier of receivers and lets see if that is enough to motivate him to come out hot. He did last an entire training camp without punching a teammate, so we are off to a positive start with him. Not much other WR depth as the ageless Mushin Muhammed and the bust(?) Dwayne Jarret are nothing more than average 2nd and 3rd receivers.

Carolina doesn't seem to intimidate to much defensively outside of Peppers (who had a very strange offseason). They do however play solid football and though I don't think they are a contender, and ultimately, I think the Falcons could do more damage in the post-season, I think over 16 games they take the NFC South.

2. Atlanta Falcons 10-6

So I guess its time to figure out what the heck was going on with this Falcons team last year. Is Matt Ryan and Turner that good, or was this just the football Gods paying back the city of Atlanta for the hard times with Vick and Bobby the rat Petrino.

Strike one: The Falcons offensive coordinator is Mike Mularkey. Yuck. Strike Two: Coy Wire played significant time at MLB for this team because of injuries last year. Strike Three: Sophomore Slump? Okay those aren't really good reasons for the Falcons coming back down to earth this year, but I don't really think they will. They will be in contention for the division and wild card this year and they just have some really good skill guys. Matt Ryan is the truth, what he did last year was unbelievable. Michael Turner is a bulldozer and as long as he can stay healthy and on the field he will continue to run all over defenses. Roddy White has turned into a legit tier 2 receiver and Tony Gonzalez adds a excellent safety valve for Ryan over the middle. This offense, if not slowed by Mularkey's play calling, can be dangerous.

3. New Orleans Saints: 8-8.

This Saints team has .500 all over it. I expect the offense to come back down to life a bit. How could they not after losing offensive coordinator Doug Marrone to the Syracuse Orange. Marrone actually had Syracuse playing a competitive game last Saturday against Minnesota and it was really interesting to see Paulus on the field. You heard it here first. Syracuse over Penn State this Saturday. Mortal Lock.

Anyways, Drew Brees and the offensive will continue to put up points no doubt. Colston and Lance Moore are good receivers who will help Brees be a top 3 fantasy QB when its all said and done. I will say that he finishes with the best stats of the big three (Brady, Brees, Manning....and that Peyton, not Eli who will be throwing to one sorry group of receivers). The running game scares the heck out of me. Pierre Thomas was a 6 game flash in the pan and all of the sudden he is a reliable back who can shoulder the load? Is he a Black French man with a name like Pierre, someone research this for me. Dirty Pierre was a marginal RB last year who stole Td's from Reggie Bush. Reggie is hurt (not sure if he really is...I just assume so) and will give you a solid 3 yards a carry. He is a touchdown machine, so for those Reggie Bush haters I think we can agree he isn't a conventional every down RB, but the man can score and strike fear in defenders ground, air, or special teams.

The defense will be bad as usual. It also can't help that DC Rapper Walle is dropping lines in his raps about Jeremy Shockey..."Get so much cut disc jockeys jock me
You ***** mad that you not me
I remain a Giant and your Jeremy Shockey.

Shockey had so much promise, not really sure what happened to this guy. Too Busy passing out at Vegas Pools to be the dominate TE we all thought he would end up being.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-13

I can't see any way this team isn't flat out bad. Let's get rid of our QB this offseason. Hey we mind as well have John Gruden leave. Lets draft a QB out of Kansas St who really isn't NFL ready, or a great talent (on paper). Does anyone mind if we just have a 30 year old Coach our team? Yeah that should work. You know what? This whole offensive coordinator thing isn't going to work, I know we have a game in like 5 days, but your gone. Who else does this (Kansas City, Buffalo) some really strong caliber teams there. Oh one more thing, can we get rid of the face of our franchise Derrick Brooks?

I don't even think this team warrants going into detail of the players they have on their roster and 3 wins might be generous. Poor Ronde Barber. Only Saving grace is if they play so bad this season they might return to the glory days of the creamiscle orange uni's.

AFC West Preview

1. San Diego Chargers 12-4: Obviously, anyone who doesn't pick the Chargers to win this division is just trying to put on their best Skip Bayless act and pick the other side just to be obstinate. I hate to say it as I am definitely a Chargers hater, but on paper, this is a top-3 team in the AFC and a bonafide super bowl contender. I have a feeling that they are going to end up as a better team than the Patriots this year, though you have to give the healthy Patriots the nod before the season starts.

A healthy Tomlinson, an emerging WR in Vincent Jackson, a finally healthy Antonio Gates and one of the best young quarterbacks in the league - Philip Rivers - entering his prime. The defense should also be very good. Having to play the NFC East is probably going to keep their record from being best in the AFC, but they still likely will go 7-1 or 8-0 against the division and should be good enough to secure the 2 or 3 seed. The sky is the limit for this team and if they remain healthy and get themselves a bye, I think this is very likely the AFC representative this year.

2. Kansas City Chiefs 7-9: A brilliant move getting Scott Pioli, former Patriots VP (or whatever), is probably going to pay dividends sooner rather than later. While I think the Matt Cassel move was very questionable, this team has spent some draft picks attempting to re-build what was once the best offensive line in the NFL. Trading off Tony Gonzalez will prove to be a good move in the long run and they have some emerging offensive players in RB Jamaal Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe. Pioli knows how to construct a team and while I don't expect the re-build to be complete until 2 years from now, the seeds have already been planted and this stripped down version of last years team will likely be much improved.

Oh yeah, Larry Johnson might be dead.

3. Denver Broncos 6-10: If it wasn't for the Brandon Marshall situation I probably would have had them above the Chiefs. I didn't exactly like the Cutler move, and I think the Bears will benefit greatly from it, but I think the Broncos were going to bounce back this year. It would be hard for their defense to repeat just how bad it was last year and on paper they have some decent players. If Brandon Marshall plays for them I think they may be a bit of a "surprise" team that goes 8-8 as they have ample threats at wideout, a possibly very good rookie RB in Knowshon Moreno (as well as guys like Correll Buckhalter, who is fragile, but ultimately all these guys are better than the stiffs they were picking up from the local grocery stores last year). I'm not an Orton guy, but give him time and some weapons and he'll be able to win you some games. Even without Marshall I think this team will be less of a joke than most people expect. I think they'll compete...and possibly even moreso if they trade off Marshall who is putting on his best TO routine. Obviously the seeds are there for a complete blow-up, but I think Denver might have a bit of a push in them.

4. Oakland Raiders 3-13: I really want to say that this is the year it comes together for the Raiders. For the sake of R-Mania, I pull for them. As I look at the roster and try to put together an argument for them though, I just can't do it. Their star cornerback (Nnamdi Asomugha) is out for the first couple weeks. Their quarterback and face of the franchise is apparently just holding off Jeff Garcia for the starting job. They have no wideouts that should be good this year. And a quarterback who is probably terrible. They do have a nice RB duo in Fargas and McFadden, but can this offensive line finally be any good? To be fair, it has been lightyears better the past couple years than it was 3 years ago. But still, unless this line turns into a dominant force and unless those athletes on defense finally turn it into the unit it appeared it could be three years ago..this team looks like a cellar dweller yet again.

It wouldn't shock me if they finally get this thing headed in the right direction and out-kick KC and Denver..and I hope they do..but I'm certainly not betting on it.

AFC West Fantasy Sleeper:
RB Darren McFadden - Not being drafted as a top back, but with so few options, Oakland is going to want him to get as many touches as possible every game. While the offense could certainly hurt him, it also might add to his value as a receiver out of the backfield. McFadden is a threat to take it the distance every time he touches it and right now, he is probably being under-drafted.
WR Vincent Jackson - Another guy who maybe isn't a "sleeper" per se, but is being under-drafted. V Jackson is a perfect breakout player waiting to happen. Good receiver with great size who has quietly been very productive entering his prime on what should be a high powered offense. Draft him after a bunch of WR2's in your league and get yourself a WR1.

Fantasy Stud:
WR Dwayne Bowe - Bowe is another WR breakout candidate. Perhaps more risky than Jackson on an offense with limited options, but for that same reason even more upside. Bowe looks very probable to break out and might end up out-producing Calvin Johnson in my opinion.
RB Ladanian Tomlinson - He slipped to the 10th pick in my draft. There is no one else that deserves to go ahead of him outside AP, MJD, Forte, Jackson and maybe maybe maybe Moss. DOn't be scared about his pre-season form.

Fantasy Bust:
RB Larry Johnson - No shock here, but he looks dead.
WR Chris Chambers - Don't think he's going to see that many balls with so many other options. Prone to drops and I could conceivably see him phased out as an option with some of the slot guys either out-producing him and/or taking his job.

NFC West Preview

St Louis Rams: 2008 Record: 2-14. Projected 2009 Record: 10-6
I know what you're thinking. The Mulldog is an idiot. No team that goes 2-14, magically turns itself into a 10-6 playoff team the next year. But keep in mind that we're dealing with the worst division in football and strange things happen. So why do I expect a turnaround?
Not only did they overthrow much of the team, the entire front office and coaching staff, but they also made an excellent decision hiring former Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Spags came to the Giants after being the Eagles linebacker coach and showed nothing but a streak of brilliance, managing to get the absolute most out of a group of talented defensive lineman, moving defensive ends all around the field and wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks like a defense in supposed to.
They released former stars and aging veterans Orlando Pace and Torry Holt. They drafted Baylor OT Jason Smith second overall (not a pick I agreed with, I actually liked Andre Smith, one of Millman's favorite people to bash on here, so what do I know...though I will say J Smith hasn't exactly looked ready to come in and fill-in for Orlando Pace) and youngsters Chris Long and James Lauranaitis will look to improve the defense. If anyone can find out how to use players like this, it should be Spags.
Another NFC West team that was ravished by injuries last year, brings in an intelligent fresh head coach, gets back a healthy veteran QB (Bulger), has one of the more dynamic RB's in football (Jackson) finally healthy...and looks pretty solid on both lines...sounds like a team in line for a turnaround. 10-6 might seem a little high, but in this division it sounds just about right to me.

Seattle Seattle Seahawks: 2008 Record: 4-12. 2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Maybe one of the toughest teams in football to project after injuries ravished their entire team last year. Already, Walter Jones is out for the season, so the hope for a big turnaround must be tempered a bit. Still, getting back some healthy WR's and Hasselbeck should point toward an improvement. This team is always very tough at home (besides last year which I think you can toss out) and with probably the rookie most ready to make an immediate impact in former Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry, the defense should be halfway decent again. They also added former Bengals WR TJ Houshmanzadeh, which should help Hasselbeck a ton.

Somehow the Seahawks always bore me to tears. Usually they're a pretty good team that plays pretty solid all-around. But Shaun Alexander always struck me as a boring runner. Matt Hasselbeck is a boring QB. They never seem to have a lightning bolt WR or anyone that wants to stir up much controversy. How can a city that looks so cool be so boring? The Seahawks reflect what I assume the city of Seattle really is: a nice, but ultimately boring place; not championship caliber but ultimately quiet, underrated, good.

I should mention that I do not in any way feel that signing the former Raiders Offensive Coordinator as a good move. No offense, yet again, intended to R-Mania.

San Fransisco 49ers: 2008 Record: 7-9. 2009 Projected Record: 4-12.
Even though I always hated the 49ers as a kid, it just feels weird seeing them be so bad for so long. Somehow, this disaster of a team was able to go 7-9 last year, thanks mainly to playing in the weakest division in football and partially to some good fortune. This year, there is no real reason to believe that they will turn it around. They are going to start Shaun Hill at quarterback instead of former Number One overall pick Alex Smith. That kind of sums up everything you need to know about this team.
Head Coach Mike Singletary is known for his hard-nosed approach, not afraid to call out his own players (hi Vernon Davis) and his hiring has resulted in the firing of "offensive guru" (and San Fransisco failure) Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator.
Furthering the circus act is the team's inability to sign first round WR Michael Crabtree who has said he is willing to sit out the season. I highly doubt that, but it is highly unlikely that he will produce this year once he finally is signed. Hard not to like Singletary as the clip shows, but I remain unconvinced that he will turn out to be a good head coach.

The upside, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and a youthful offensive line might have this team headed in the right direction, but I can't see it happening this year...and until they find a real QB, they will remain irrelevant. Their defense should be on the improve with a halfway talented group: Clements, Bly, Michael Lewis, Willis, Justin Smith, Sopogoa, Lawson, TKO.. so 4-12 in that division might be a little harsh, but it is pretty hard to take this team seriously on paper (but hey fans, you're 3-0 in the preseason!).

Arizona Cardinals: 2008 Record: 9-7 2009 Projected Record: 4-12
So there it is, rounding out what I am predicting to be a wacky, flip-flop division, your 2008 almost Super Bowl winning Arizona Cardinals. Anyone who knows me is, I'm sure, not surprised by this. The Cardinals were so fortunate in so many ways last year that it's not even worth getting into. A lot needs to go right for this team to repeat that performance however.
The defense last year got away with smoke and mirrors during the playoff run. They exploited a weak division to make the playoffs and were exposed as frauds numerous times throughout the year.
Rookie RB Beanie Wells has been impressive early on and may well be a good back, but this is essentially the same offensive line that hasn't been able to open up holes for any number of Zona backs including Edge. I see no real reason to believe that Beanie will come in and start averaging 5 yards per carry, though if he does this offense certainly could explode.
I maintain that the offense would be better with Matt Leinart than Kurt Warner, I don't care what you say. Warner played well last year, but is always a major turnover risk and at his age, you have to expect his level of play to decline and his injury risk to soar (though again, I think that may actually help them).
Fitz and Boldin are great...but with an aging quarterback, a line with much to be skeptical about..and a defense that was very up and down last year, it just feels like a team that is going to struggle this year.
I will admit that there are enough intriguing young players on the defense that maybe it was just starting to all come together at the end of last year, but ultimately this looks like a team asking for everything to fall right two years in a row and in the NFL that's not usually a very good bet.

Mulldog Projected Order of Finish:
1. St Louis Rams 10-6
2. Seattle Seahawks 8-8 (out of playoffs)
3. Arizona Cardinals 4-12
4. San Fransisco 49ers 4-12

Mulldog's NFC West Fantasy Football Sleepers:
Donnie Avery - Obviously I am high on the Rams turnaround and if speedster Avery can get healthy and on the field I think he will be a solid flex or WR3 option in leagues using those.

Julius Jones - He's not great but I think he puts in a year similar to the one we saw from Thomas Jones last year, quietly solid and reliable.

NFC West Fantasy Stud:
Steven Jackson - Back to the well on the Rams yet again. With what should be a healthier line and QB this year, S Jackson seems poised to have a monster season. In leagues that are PPR he can catch and I would expect a huge boost in his TD numbers with a more reliable offense. Would not surprise me to see him outproduce all other backs and I would take him over any non-MJD and AP picks.

Fantasy Bust:
Frank Gore - Just think Gore is due for an injury and given the QB situation, there is just no way I want to put my first-round trust on a guy with a team so likely to implode. He is a true beast but his powerful style and the coaches plan to pound out the ball on the ground could very likely lead to him breaking down.



Okay here is where the Millman Steps in and weighs in on the Mulldog's analysis and trust me, I have some serious points to battle on. First off let me dispute some of my opinions on the analysis:

St. Louis Rams

• Yes Mulldog, we are thinking your an idiot. The St. Louis Rams will not be finishing this division 10-6 or winning. Now granted I agree the NFL is a funny game, and no team looks as good or as bad as they did from week to week, let alone year to year. I Just can't see this 2 win team making an 8 win jump. They won't. Talk about a biased opinion by the way. Classic Giant fan just hyping up coach Steve Spagnuts. I think he is a good hire and great defensive mind don't get me wrong, but he is not a miracle maker. St.Louis will be much better with a healthy Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. The defensive is just pourous and their offense though not a weakness to the team, isn't going to carry this squad. It does not help that Donnie Avery will miss a few weeks with an injury.
  

Seattle Seahawks:

• I really can't agree more that this Seahawk team is fairly boring. They are always fairly boring. They were even boring when they made their surprise superbowl run. I just think for some reason Matt Hassleback makes that team run. A healthy QB will make this team competitive again. I look for Hassleback to have a big year (if healthy) and T.J Housh will give him a weapon he has never had. You can still claim their overall WR corps is not that impressive, but Hassleback has done more with much less over his career. He is most certainly playing with one of the finest WR supporting casts he has seen. You can't take away the fact that Seattle is homefield monster and just flat out does damage at home. Plus they might have one of the coolest looking stadiums in the league.

San Francisco 49ers:

• I don't really have any problems with the 4-12 record given to the 9ers by mulldog. I do think they will finish a game or two better, but thats it. I Just see to much disgusting play at QB. Shaun Hill or Alex Smith? Yuck. Not surprised Hill won the job he is after all 7-3 as a starter. Frank Gore will be a work horse for this team as usual and I actually like Mike Singletary as a coach. He might not be the brightest guy, and heck, we know he isn't always clothed, but atleast he brings an attitude and energy to the locker room that was missing by the former pretty boy suit wearing Mike Nolan. The defense is formidable but they just don't have an offensive attack and untill they get some receiving help and a good QB they will never contend in my opinion. Michael Crabtree thanks for wasting your rookie year. Vernon Davis, not sure how you still have a job. Just because you looked jacked coming out of Maryland and were sweet in Under Armor commercials does not give you the right to have 10 receptions a season. Click Clack!

Arizona Cardinals:

• Not sure if Mulldog is just trying to stir up controversy or if he really believes the defending NFC Champions are going to go 4-12. Warner is old, but I still think you have to admit he flat out produces. Matt Leinart may be a better QB for the team right now, but we can't get him on the field because most of his free time is spent partying with Nick Lachey and College Freshman Girls. The offense with Fitz, Boldin, Hightower, Wells, Warner, Breaston, and Urban is just to robust to not put points on the board and win games. Also, the defense may not be stellar, but it certainly isn't a pressing liability. Cardinals will definetely contend for the division, though I do not see them making a magical run like last year. I will agree that I think they just had a fortunate road and things come together at the right time.
  

Millman's NFC WEST DIVISION STANDINGS:

1. Seattle Seahawks


2. Arizona Cardinals


3. San Fran 49ers


4. St. Louis Rams

I see no wild card coming from this division and I see the seahawks playing good enough football to take back their division as NFC west winners. The safe pick is taking the Cardinals as on paper none of the rest of the three teams pose a great threat. I Just think the Hawks are a solid team who will play good defense, score some points, and win at home.