Tuesday, July 14, 2009

MLB First Half Review

As we have reached the All-Star break, Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki have cooled off enough to where there's no longer much thought to either of them even flirting with .400 into August. That said, Mauer at .373 (with a surprising 15 homers in just 241 at-bats, good for the best slugging percentage of anyone outside Pujols and Ibanez) and Ichiro at .362 have put together some tremendous first halves.

What is going on in baseball? Are players back on the juice? Albert Pujols has 32 home runs. Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Pena and Mark Reynolds (that's right) have 24. Some other big surprises include Russell Branyan with 22 (previous career high 20), Nelson Cruz 22, Raul Ibanez 22 in 259 at-bats, Brandon Inge 21 (previous career high 27), Aaron Hill 20 (previous career high 17, only time in double digits). I'll stop there but the list of surprises is deeper than that.

First Half AL MVP:
Has to be Joe Mauer to me. A catcher with a .373/.447 BA/OBP. Perhaps most amazing is his .622 slugging percentage, good for third best in baseball behind Pujols and Ibanez. Always an incredibly high average hitter, Mauer has always disappointed a bit when it comes to power and with just 3 homers in his past 35 games, he probably will end around 25. That said, he is probably a top-5 player in baseball and has been surprisingly underrated for someone so highly acclaimed coming out of high school where he allegedly only struck out once in his career.
My second choice? Ben Zobrist. Don't laugh, Ben Zobrist, it can be argued, should be the first half AL MVP. With a .297/.414/.598 line he has connected on 17 hr's and knocked in 52 RBI's playing second base for Tampa Bay. Incredible production out of a second baseman and while he can't continue, see his career - .222/.279/.370 with 23 homers in 364 games..the switch hitting utility man is keeping Tampa hanging with Boston and NY and we must marvel at what he has done so far, just a remarkable half. Third place I'll give Kevin Youkilis. .298/.419/.566 and 16 hr's despite missing some time. Youkilis is the centerpiece in one of baseball's best offenses. He will obviously pass Zobrist in the 2nd half, and has a chance to beat out Mauer, especially considering what little emphasis sports writers seem to place on position (unless that player is Dustin Pedroia).

First Half NL MVP:
Obviously, it is Albert Pujols. .332/.456/.723. 32 HR's, 87 RBI's, 73 Runs. He's even swiped 10 bags. 71 BB's to 35 K's. The man is just a freak. Might not be great in home run derbies, but far and away the last guy any pitcher wants to face. Speaking of Pujols, Bud Selig was on Mike and Mike today taking offense at all the "Pujols is a juicer" talk. Imagine, Bud Selig outraged people are claiming a player on steroids. Such a joke. Interesting to see if Pujols ends up breaking the HR record, he has never tested positive and has been tested virtually his entire career...his name has popped up with some of those lists but never turned out to end up on them. Very interesting case in the steroid era.
Second choice should be easy, but I don't see everyone saying it: Chase Utley. He is a second baseman that actually has better numbers than Zobrist, and here's a guy who should continue to put this type of line up: .313/.430/.573. 20 HR's.
There are some truly excellent choices in the NL, but I'll do the obvious and say Hanley Ramirez as a third choice. .349/.411/.567. Shortstops aren't supposed to be able to do that anymore.
Next would have to be Prince Fielder and his .442 OBP. Then Raul Ibanez and his .649 Slugging, who if he didn't get hurt may be 2nd.

First Half Al Cy Young:
Has to be Zack Greinke. I got into the pitching numbers a ton recently so I won't say much more but King Felix and Roy Halladay would probably be 2-3 in inverse order.

First Half NL Cy Young:
No surprise, Dan Haren for me. Tim Lincecum next, then everyone else.

Mulldog's Biggest Surprise:
Besides the Blue Jays flirting with .500 and Aaron Hill smacking 20 homers, I'd have to say Cleveland's 35-54 record. I thought they were the favorites to win the Central and while seeing the Tigers improve isn't a big shock, the Indians are perhaps baseball's biggest flop. Peralta can't hit. Sizemore had been terrible though is heating up. Their bullpen is a joke. Carl Pavano is the team's second best starter. What happened to the promising Indians everyone had been waiting to blossom the past few years? The ship may have sailed and the Indians might be baseball's biggest seller at this year's trade deadline.

Mulldog's First Half Flop:
The New York Amazings. That's right, the 4th place Amazings have been ravished by injury. While only 6.5 back of the Phils, they are three games under .500 - and that's after winning two straight headed to the break. The team they have rolled out some nights would be embarrassing for a AAA squad. Their darling Murphy not only has flopped as a hitter, he looks like the worst defensive player in baseball. Pelfrey, Maine, Perez...huge disappointments. Putz, disappointment. Livan Hernandez is throwing 75. K-Rod has actually been Hudini-good, and it should be interesting to see if he can continue with his smoke and mirrors act. This is a team that can look like baseball's best on paper with a bonafide ace in Johan, a top-tier closer in K-Rod, and a lineup with Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Delgado. When healthy and Delgado is hitting it's about as tough of a lineup to get through as any. As usual however, the team is underachieving and is looking likely to miss the playoffs, yet again. But hey, at least they might not choke at the end of this year...the opportunity might not even present itself.

Random Musings:
Speaking of Hanley Ramirez doing things shortstops aren't supposed to do "post-juice" era, how about a couple of that era's golden boy shortstops, with a huge '09 return act? Derek Jeter is hitting .321/.396 and has hit 10 homers. Perhaps more shocking is his 17 steals. He has 40 BB's to 41 K's so it appears he may be able to continue this pace if he doesn't wear down. Miguel Tejada meanwhile is hitting .329 with 30 doubles and 7 HR's. Nomar Garciaparra, not so resurgent. .253/.286 with 2 HR's in his first 79 at-bats of the season.

A forgotten story is the incredible pace of stolen bases Carl Crawford was on after the 6 steal game. While thoughts of 100 steals may be gone as he has slowed down, 44 steals in the first half is a huge number. Probably, Jacoby Ellsbury, will end up leading the majors in steals. He has 40 now and seems to take off every time he gets on base (which fortunately for Crawford still isn't all that much). How Bobby Abreu continues to do it with 19 steals in the first half is beyond me.

Millman and I are going to do another little cliche piece making some predictions on the second half, hopefully the AL and NL East races are as good as they could be on paper. And 3 of the other 4 divisions in baseball have 3+ teams within first place.

1 comment:

  1. To backup Aaron Hill...his previous career high of 17 was only his second year of MLB service. Last year was a washout due to the concussion he got early in the season and DNP the remainder of the season. So this is basically his third full year of baseball. I'll be shocked if he hits 30 though.

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