Not So Fast NFL

Cliff Lee just tossed another absolute gem for the peaking Phillies. A complete game, 11 K, 0 BB, 2 hitter. Sure the D'Backs offense is one of the worst in the league, but Lee suddenly has the Phils primed for another run at the World Series. When Rollins and / or Victorino are getting on at the top, that is probably the most dangerous lineup in baseball. Chase Utley still doesn't get the credit he deserves for being a top-10 player in baseball. The question is, can they find a way to re-charge Cole Hamels. I'm not at all surprised that he has struggled a bit this year after the taxing they had to put on him during the World Series run, but if he returns to form and Lidge remembers how to pitch, they may run away with this thing.

As we approach the stretch run, most of you are familiar with the divisional races and the wild card picture...but which teams are legitimate contenders?

Yankees - Obviously, the Yanks could win the entire thing. They are the class of the AL and while beating the Bo Sox will prove difficult..and the Angels are their kryptonite..they will likely beat up on the Central winner and then only have to go through one of those two, at home. I'm not impressed with the Angels..if they win home field advantage they will probably be considered the favorites, but the AL East is so much better than the AL West from top to bottom that I don't think people realize what is usually taken for granted - the Sox and Yanks are head and shoulders above the rest of the AL.
I therefore go out on a limb and say the boring - Yanks and Sox in the AL, no one else will come out.

The NL is trickier. There you have the Phillies which already were discussed. In the Central St. Louis added Matt Holliday and looks like they're ready to open up on the fading Cubs. The addition of John Smoltz as a fifth starter is a much better move than people are crediting it. Sure his ERA wasn't very good, but he had something like a 38/9 K/BB, proving that he can still miss bats while controlling the strike zone. He now moves to the NL and should be able to give 5-6 strong innings per outing before eventually moving to the pen where he could truly be an asset for the playoffs.

I still like the Cubs, if Soriano, Bradley and Soto ever start hitting they are going to make a run...the question is have they fallen behind too many teams to win the wild card?

Dodgers will win the West. Colorado is making a great run, but will have to win the wild card. I think Colorado is going to fade, but I'm not really sure who can take them out. I still say the 4 best teams are Phils, Cards, Dodgers, Cubs. And it's very hard to distinguish which of those teams are the best. Gun to the head I'm taking the surging Cardinals. Pujols has proven he can carry a team to the World Series before, now he's got a true sidekick and the lineup can be murderous to get through.

Should be an exciting stretch run for the baseball fans that are not too busy drooling over NFL training camps.

Blues Playoff Baseball

The NV Blues finished first in their division, and nabbed the number 2 seed in the congested 23 team playoff for the DCMSBL cup (just made that up).

We play the Blue Jays who pounded the Alexandria Yanks by a wide margin in the #15 vs #18 seed matchup. For those of you interested, the game will not be televised (marketing rights, its complicated), but you are welcomed to join us at Langley High School for a 3 pm Saturday ball game. Blues should advance as they are the stronger, more experienced team, but a dagger of a ruling could shake up their chances. If you remember an earlier posting marked a day that a bat throwing incident took place. Ambulances were called, games were suspended, etc etc. Apparently the umpires or opposing coach reported the incident to the league and the commisioner of the DCMSBL wasn't to happy about it.

This email was to our Coach from the league Commisioner.

1)Yes I am schocked that this league actually has a commisioner (nice life)
2) The player is our starting LF and lead-off hitter.

The email read....

As of now, the League Committee has determined that Brian Simmons is suspended for the remainder of the season, meaning that he is ineligible for the playoffs. The deliberate act of throwing a bat out of frustration, anger, whatever will not be ignored by the league regardless of measures taken by the team.
Jerry Klemm, D.C.
Commissioner
DCMSBL

As you know Bud Selig is 75 years old so I heard Jerry Klemm is on the list of potential candidates to replace Selig when he leaves office. With rulings like this Klemm is well on his way to taking on baseballs important issues like Steroid use.

Bettin' Baseball

With nothing going on in sports of note, I was looking at some baseball lines and there is an appealing card today with lots of betting opportunities, let's start a little running thread with a $50 bankroll and see what the BCA can do. 1 unit = $10

Cubs +110 2 units to win 2.2 (20 bucks to win 22). Not often that you can find the Cubbies with Rich Harden on the mound at plus money. Against Joe Blanton this looks like a gift. On the road, but plus money here is just far too nice to pass up. Phils are red hot and it usually takes a power arm to cool a hot offense, that is what we have here. Harden is coming off one of his sharpest outings too. Soriano has started to hit the ball and this Cubs team is definitely going to heat up down the stretch, get in before it's too late on the value.

Baltimore +160 1 unit to win 1.6. Sergio Mitre -180 really? Rich Hill is capable of getting some K's, he could put together a decent enough outing and the Yanks staff is due to give up some runs.

A's -140 1.4 units to win 1. Putting nearly the entire bankroll on the line. Like this spot for the Giambi-less A's as Braden is a craft lefty which should neutralize much of the Twins best offensive pieces. I think Giambi being out helps the A's as well, a stone wall would be better defensively at first and he isn't hitting anyway.

MLB First Half Review

As we have reached the All-Star break, Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki have cooled off enough to where there's no longer much thought to either of them even flirting with .400 into August. That said, Mauer at .373 (with a surprising 15 homers in just 241 at-bats, good for the best slugging percentage of anyone outside Pujols and Ibanez) and Ichiro at .362 have put together some tremendous first halves.

What is going on in baseball? Are players back on the juice? Albert Pujols has 32 home runs. Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Pena and Mark Reynolds (that's right) have 24. Some other big surprises include Russell Branyan with 22 (previous career high 20), Nelson Cruz 22, Raul Ibanez 22 in 259 at-bats, Brandon Inge 21 (previous career high 27), Aaron Hill 20 (previous career high 17, only time in double digits). I'll stop there but the list of surprises is deeper than that.

First Half AL MVP:
Has to be Joe Mauer to me. A catcher with a .373/.447 BA/OBP. Perhaps most amazing is his .622 slugging percentage, good for third best in baseball behind Pujols and Ibanez. Always an incredibly high average hitter, Mauer has always disappointed a bit when it comes to power and with just 3 homers in his past 35 games, he probably will end around 25. That said, he is probably a top-5 player in baseball and has been surprisingly underrated for someone so highly acclaimed coming out of high school where he allegedly only struck out once in his career.
My second choice? Ben Zobrist. Don't laugh, Ben Zobrist, it can be argued, should be the first half AL MVP. With a .297/.414/.598 line he has connected on 17 hr's and knocked in 52 RBI's playing second base for Tampa Bay. Incredible production out of a second baseman and while he can't continue, see his career - .222/.279/.370 with 23 homers in 364 games..the switch hitting utility man is keeping Tampa hanging with Boston and NY and we must marvel at what he has done so far, just a remarkable half. Third place I'll give Kevin Youkilis. .298/.419/.566 and 16 hr's despite missing some time. Youkilis is the centerpiece in one of baseball's best offenses. He will obviously pass Zobrist in the 2nd half, and has a chance to beat out Mauer, especially considering what little emphasis sports writers seem to place on position (unless that player is Dustin Pedroia).

First Half NL MVP:
Obviously, it is Albert Pujols. .332/.456/.723. 32 HR's, 87 RBI's, 73 Runs. He's even swiped 10 bags. 71 BB's to 35 K's. The man is just a freak. Might not be great in home run derbies, but far and away the last guy any pitcher wants to face. Speaking of Pujols, Bud Selig was on Mike and Mike today taking offense at all the "Pujols is a juicer" talk. Imagine, Bud Selig outraged people are claiming a player on steroids. Such a joke. Interesting to see if Pujols ends up breaking the HR record, he has never tested positive and has been tested virtually his entire career...his name has popped up with some of those lists but never turned out to end up on them. Very interesting case in the steroid era.
Second choice should be easy, but I don't see everyone saying it: Chase Utley. He is a second baseman that actually has better numbers than Zobrist, and here's a guy who should continue to put this type of line up: .313/.430/.573. 20 HR's.
There are some truly excellent choices in the NL, but I'll do the obvious and say Hanley Ramirez as a third choice. .349/.411/.567. Shortstops aren't supposed to be able to do that anymore.
Next would have to be Prince Fielder and his .442 OBP. Then Raul Ibanez and his .649 Slugging, who if he didn't get hurt may be 2nd.

First Half Al Cy Young:
Has to be Zack Greinke. I got into the pitching numbers a ton recently so I won't say much more but King Felix and Roy Halladay would probably be 2-3 in inverse order.

First Half NL Cy Young:
No surprise, Dan Haren for me. Tim Lincecum next, then everyone else.

Mulldog's Biggest Surprise:
Besides the Blue Jays flirting with .500 and Aaron Hill smacking 20 homers, I'd have to say Cleveland's 35-54 record. I thought they were the favorites to win the Central and while seeing the Tigers improve isn't a big shock, the Indians are perhaps baseball's biggest flop. Peralta can't hit. Sizemore had been terrible though is heating up. Their bullpen is a joke. Carl Pavano is the team's second best starter. What happened to the promising Indians everyone had been waiting to blossom the past few years? The ship may have sailed and the Indians might be baseball's biggest seller at this year's trade deadline.

Mulldog's First Half Flop:
The New York Amazings. That's right, the 4th place Amazings have been ravished by injury. While only 6.5 back of the Phils, they are three games under .500 - and that's after winning two straight headed to the break. The team they have rolled out some nights would be embarrassing for a AAA squad. Their darling Murphy not only has flopped as a hitter, he looks like the worst defensive player in baseball. Pelfrey, Maine, Perez...huge disappointments. Putz, disappointment. Livan Hernandez is throwing 75. K-Rod has actually been Hudini-good, and it should be interesting to see if he can continue with his smoke and mirrors act. This is a team that can look like baseball's best on paper with a bonafide ace in Johan, a top-tier closer in K-Rod, and a lineup with Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Delgado. When healthy and Delgado is hitting it's about as tough of a lineup to get through as any. As usual however, the team is underachieving and is looking likely to miss the playoffs, yet again. But hey, at least they might not choke at the end of this year...the opportunity might not even present itself.

Random Musings:
Speaking of Hanley Ramirez doing things shortstops aren't supposed to do "post-juice" era, how about a couple of that era's golden boy shortstops, with a huge '09 return act? Derek Jeter is hitting .321/.396 and has hit 10 homers. Perhaps more shocking is his 17 steals. He has 40 BB's to 41 K's so it appears he may be able to continue this pace if he doesn't wear down. Miguel Tejada meanwhile is hitting .329 with 30 doubles and 7 HR's. Nomar Garciaparra, not so resurgent. .253/.286 with 2 HR's in his first 79 at-bats of the season.

A forgotten story is the incredible pace of stolen bases Carl Crawford was on after the 6 steal game. While thoughts of 100 steals may be gone as he has slowed down, 44 steals in the first half is a huge number. Probably, Jacoby Ellsbury, will end up leading the majors in steals. He has 40 now and seems to take off every time he gets on base (which fortunately for Crawford still isn't all that much). How Bobby Abreu continues to do it with 19 steals in the first half is beyond me.

Millman and I are going to do another little cliche piece making some predictions on the second half, hopefully the AL and NL East races are as good as they could be on paper. And 3 of the other 4 divisions in baseball have 3+ teams within first place.

Baseball's First Big Week in NY

(< The house that Ruth laughs at)

As the high school year nears close and summer approaches, this week should be the biggest to date in all of baseball, especially in New York.

With the Yanks playing their best baseball of the year and now with a one game lead on Boston, they will head to Fenway Park tonight for a three game series, before heading back home to host the first inter-league subway series with the sputtering Mets. Meanwhile, as the Yanks and Sox square off, the Mets will be hosting the Phillies (leading the Mets by 3 games for the division lead) in a big-time NL East match-up, before the teams exchange opponents as the Sox head to Philly. Big week in the Northeast and the eastern divisions in each league, should be the week that officially marks a shifting of people going into full-blown baseball mode with basketball and hockey coming to a close and the football season still off in the distance.

The atmosphere should be pretty electric as this is the first chance for New York fans to mix it up in the new ballparks, and at least it will be played at Yankee stadium where there is sure to be plenty of home runs to cheer about.

Speaking of the Yankees playing their best baseball of late, it appears they may be getting another boost as Phil Hughes came out of the bullpen throwing 95 for a flawless inning that included a strikeout last night. Hughes could end up becoming the bridge to Mariano that the Yankees needed...and if Joba pitches like he has recently and Wang gets it together, this team is probably the best in baseball.

Since I have only been half paying attention to baseball while the NBA drags out the playoffs..here are the pitching match-ups and some half-assed predictions as the divisional rivals square off Tuesday-Thursday:

6/9: Burnett / Beckett - This game will feature two hard throwing right-handers with a history of pitching well against these perennially dominant offenses. Both of them struggled at times this year with command, but are coming off consecutive strong outings, has all the makings of a pitcher's duel.
Prediction: Burnett's control gets him in trouble, Sox win 5-2.

Santana / Happ
Prediction: Happ runs out of magic, Mets 7-2.

6/10: Wang / Wakefield - Wang still hasn't put it all together but he pitched three scoreless out the pen and while he gave up a bunch of runs last outing had 5 k's to 1 bb.
Prediction: Wang has his first real good start of the year, Yanks win 6-1.

Pelfrey / Hamels (OK can I say these Phils/Mets pitching match-ups are brutal?)
Prediction: Phils 5-0.

6/11: Sabathia / Penny - With a lot of trade rumors surrounding a possible Brad Penny trade (not sure I'd give up even a low-level prospect like N. Huard at this point for him), the Sox would love to see him throw a good game to increase his value.
Prediction: CC with a nice effort, Yanks win 5-3.

Redding (pride of Rochester?) / Moyer
Prediction: Phils 1-0, Jamie Moyer tosses no-hitter, Bud Selig blows up Citi Field afterward with dozens of fans still in it after being lulled to sleep by a 2009 pitching duel between Tim Redding and Jamie Moyer.


(Actual advance photo of Citi Field 15 minutes before Redding/Moyer start >)

Queens heads uptown / Uppity Boston Fucks meet Rugged Philadalphians:

6/12: Joba / Maine - Joba throwing better, Maine coming off getting thumped (finally), hard to pick against the Yanks here.
Prediction: Yanks 7-5.

Lester / Blanton
Prediction: Lester cruises, Sox 8-2.

6/13: Pettitte / Livan - Livan is walking on water right now, he's going to get absolutely crushed Saturday though.
Prediction: Yanks 13-9.

Dice-K / Bastardo
Prediction: Longest 9-inning game in MLB history. Sox win 11-8.

6/14: Burnett / Santana - Mets salvage series with a big outing from Santana.
Prediction: Mets 9-1.

Beckett / Happ
Prediction: Happ continue to regress, Beckett continues to throw well, 5-1 Sox for the sweep. Mets fans rejoice.

Put Joba back in the Bullpen

Listening to Mike Francesa for the past couple days he has been talking about how he feels Joba Chamberlain should be put back in the bullpen (and also that the Yanks won't do it). I have felt this way all year. I am definitely one who goes along with the belief that a dominant starting pitcher is more valuable to a team than a dominant reliever. It is self-evident that the player tossing more innings at a high-level is more important than the one tossing fewer innings. The problem is, Joba is a very average starting pitcher, and he is hurting the Yankees bullpen two-fold.

How is he hurting the bullpen in two ways? A) The Yankees obviously lose a dominant relief pitcher (Joba, one they have proven all year cannot be replaced by Veras, Bruney, Ramirez and all the others they have tried). B) He not only is an average starter - but he never goes deep in games therefore further taxing an already weakened bullpen.

Joba right now is fortunate to have a 4.00 ERA. His WHIP is near 1.60. While he is striking out nearly a batter per inning (thanks to his 12-K performance against Boston), he has allowed 25 walks and 6 HRs in just 45 innings. 9 starts. 45 IP. 6 no-decisions. His velocity is way down. This is the same guy who as a rookie gave up 1 run in his first 24 IP with 34 Ks to 6 BBs. Last year (mainly in the bullpen, with a few starts) he surrendered just 5 homers in 100 IP while striking out 118, while walking under 40 batters.

If Wang shows that he is at-all healthy and Hughes continues to progress, there is no reason to think those two can't pitch as well as Joba has as a starter (1.60 WHIP) and possibly better. On top of this all is the fact that Mariano Rivera is clearly nearing the end. The Yankees have been blessed with a rare power arm like Joba who could possibly step right in and be a top-notch closer right away (he won't be Mo of course, but no one is)...it makes far too much sense not to do, which is probably why the Yanks won't do it.