The Belmont Stakes

My favorite horse race of the year on the only track I seem to cap horses with much success, many of you have probably heard the story of the superfecta I nearly hit a few years back that paid around 10k..The story this year at the last leg of the triple crown actually may be more about jockey Calvin Borel who rode Mine That Bird to the win in the Kentucky Derby before riding Rachel Alexandra to win The Preakness. I don't know that it has ever been done before that a jockey won the triple crown using different horses (and it's shocking that one would even attempt). But without further ado here is my analysis of the race:

1. Chocolate Candy - Talented horse never seems to get a good trip, dangerous that could sneak onto the board but I'll be passsing.
2. Dunkirk - Horse got a ton of hype before the Kentucky Derby and then absolutely no-showed after stumbling out the gate. That said this may be the most talented 3-year-old and best horse in this field. At 4-1 this is my pick.
3. Mr. Hot Stuff - Another horse that didn't fire in the Kentucky Derby, I'm not sure Hot Stuff isn't still running. Horse is a stone cold closer in a field of closers and far from the most talented one, not a good sign I'll pass.
4. Summer Bird - Some talk of this as a good longshot as his father Birdstone beat Smarty Jones on his attempt to win the triple crown in this same race. Do think there is more value here than Mine That Bird but don't think better than 3rd will happen.
5. Luv Gov - Ran a pretty good Preakness despite finishing 8th, another with a chance to fire late and hit the board.
6. Charitable Man - Has Lemon Drop Kid's gene pool, how can you not love this horse? The only horse in the field with true early speed and if you all remember D'tara from last year, sometimes if there is only one good frontrunner they can get out and take it wire-to-wire. Belmont isn't historically a great race for closers, and Charitable Man will certainly be out front so must be considered.
7. Mine That Bird - Horse that kind of came out of nowhere and just put together monster runs in the derby and preakness. Gets jockey back and if Preakness was this distance he would have blown by Rachel Alexandra. Appears to be begging for distance but I don't think this race sets up for him..not enough early speed and I just don't think he'll be able to repeat with another huge race...I'll be leaving out, may cost me but I think that is how you get value in this race.
8. Flying Private - Not garnering as much attention as would have if hit the board instead of just missing in 4th in the Preakness..ran a pretty monster race though after not firing at all in the Derby. That said, this is another closer I'll pass on.
9. Miner's Escape - Doesn't appear to belong on paper. Took big step forward last race and should look to get out early but won't be considered by me.
10. Brave Victory - Finished 3rd a ways back from Charitable Man in Peter Pan. Talented horse not garnering much attention at 15-1, another that could hit the board but ultimately shouldn't be much of a threat.

Obviously I think Dunkirk wins this and holds the most value. I also like Charitable Man, so I'll probably play Dunkirk to win and a 2/6 exacta box. As a longshot tri or superfecta I'll probably play something along the lines of 2/6/1,4,7,8,10. Good luck gamblers.