Back to the Bronx

The last paragraph I wrote in yesterday's piece:

Now the whole world expects Cliff Lee to send it back to Yankee Stadium but Burnett looked good last out. I think the Yankees have a serious chance to close it out tonight against what should be a deflated Phillies team. Will be interesting to see how Burnett throws on short rest and the one caveat I will make is this: If Lee beats Burnett as most people seem to think he will....You have Andy Pettitte throwing on short rest like he has never done against a hot Pedro, I think that's a match that the Yankees will win, but if they do end up dropping that and we see a game 7 - I think Girardi has all but used up CC, again throwing him over 100 pitches. The game 7 adrenaline would probably help him but that is not something that the Yankees want to have to rely on. They'd be wise to close it out tonight, otherwise I have the funny feeling they better get it done game 6.

Obviously, there is a lot of underlying stuff going on here with Cole Hamels comments about how he can't wait for the season to be over (who will pitch game 7 for the Phils?). Now everyone sees essentially what I was trying to point out yesterday. Last night was very likely a game the Phillies would win, and while all New York has to do is win one at home, Joe Girardi has really set them up to possible fail.

If you're confident in Andy Pettitte on three days rest for the first time in four years raise your hand. If you're confident in CC Sabathia again on three days left after a gutsy outing where he had maybe C+ stuff, raise your hand. Personally, I'm not confident in either. Andy has thrown well on short rest before, but he's much older now and his velocity is already down. If he throws any slower it might be much closer to batting practice than people realize.

The Yankees, in my opinion, will have to win this series with their bats. Pedro and an unknown starter in game 7 (Hamels? Happ?) are not world-beaters at this point. If I'm Philly I'm throwing Hamels despite his comments. If anything, I like him more with something to prove. Either way, Joe Girardi faltered by not throwing Gaudin up 3-1 against Cliff Lee. He could have then had AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte on full rest with CC available out of the pen. Or he could have thrown AJ on full rest and then came back with CC in the seventh.

As it stands this series looks eerily familiar to the 04 ALCS where the Yanks got stunned after they ran out of pitching against a potent lineup.

As for last night's game I won't get as in-depth. I didn't have a problem with using Coke down 6-2 against a bunch of lefties. I didn't think it wise to use up your good arms there with the way Lee settled in...and if the Yanks didn't come out and pop him no one would complain about the decision. You did have an off day today, but I still thought it a decent spot to use Coke - he just didn't deliver.

You see what happens when Molina is put into a lineup that already is going to have a weak hitting center-fielder and the pitcher - you basically get a very good top, but with a lot of pressure on it and room to work around. The Yankees 7-8-9 hitters are miserable game-in, game-out and it is really hurting their offense.

Chase Utley is a monster.

I have a feeling this series may come down to this - which team can get their power hitter going. Can the Yanks get Tex hitting again at home? Or does Ryan Howard break out and start popping homers again? That to me, above all else, will have the most say in deciding who wins this.

The Phillies are headed to New York but they must be feeling confident. Two games seems so much less insurmountable than three games. Even with Lee on the mound and the home-field advantage I felt that was a tricky game for Philly. Now, if Pedro throws well one more time and they get a decent start game 7, I think their bats may steal away the series. On the other hand, the Yanks have to feel good about winning just one of two at home. Andy Pettitte and CC Sabthia are gutsy pitchers who you don't fear handing the ball over to, and something like 6 innings 4 runs might just be good enough, especially if Tex starts to hit. Or maybe Cano with a couple well-hit balls snaps out of it? Either way, this series is far from over and should come to an exciting finish. Enjoy.