Bettin' Baseball

With nothing going on in sports of note, I was looking at some baseball lines and there is an appealing card today with lots of betting opportunities, let's start a little running thread with a $50 bankroll and see what the BCA can do. 1 unit = $10

Cubs +110 2 units to win 2.2 (20 bucks to win 22). Not often that you can find the Cubbies with Rich Harden on the mound at plus money. Against Joe Blanton this looks like a gift. On the road, but plus money here is just far too nice to pass up. Phils are red hot and it usually takes a power arm to cool a hot offense, that is what we have here. Harden is coming off one of his sharpest outings too. Soriano has started to hit the ball and this Cubs team is definitely going to heat up down the stretch, get in before it's too late on the value.

Baltimore +160 1 unit to win 1.6. Sergio Mitre -180 really? Rich Hill is capable of getting some K's, he could put together a decent enough outing and the Yanks staff is due to give up some runs.

A's -140 1.4 units to win 1. Putting nearly the entire bankroll on the line. Like this spot for the Giambi-less A's as Braden is a craft lefty which should neutralize much of the Twins best offensive pieces. I think Giambi being out helps the A's as well, a stone wall would be better defensively at first and he isn't hitting anyway.

The Belmont Stakes

My favorite horse race of the year on the only track I seem to cap horses with much success, many of you have probably heard the story of the superfecta I nearly hit a few years back that paid around 10k..The story this year at the last leg of the triple crown actually may be more about jockey Calvin Borel who rode Mine That Bird to the win in the Kentucky Derby before riding Rachel Alexandra to win The Preakness. I don't know that it has ever been done before that a jockey won the triple crown using different horses (and it's shocking that one would even attempt). But without further ado here is my analysis of the race:

1. Chocolate Candy - Talented horse never seems to get a good trip, dangerous that could sneak onto the board but I'll be passsing.
2. Dunkirk - Horse got a ton of hype before the Kentucky Derby and then absolutely no-showed after stumbling out the gate. That said this may be the most talented 3-year-old and best horse in this field. At 4-1 this is my pick.
3. Mr. Hot Stuff - Another horse that didn't fire in the Kentucky Derby, I'm not sure Hot Stuff isn't still running. Horse is a stone cold closer in a field of closers and far from the most talented one, not a good sign I'll pass.
4. Summer Bird - Some talk of this as a good longshot as his father Birdstone beat Smarty Jones on his attempt to win the triple crown in this same race. Do think there is more value here than Mine That Bird but don't think better than 3rd will happen.
5. Luv Gov - Ran a pretty good Preakness despite finishing 8th, another with a chance to fire late and hit the board.
6. Charitable Man - Has Lemon Drop Kid's gene pool, how can you not love this horse? The only horse in the field with true early speed and if you all remember D'tara from last year, sometimes if there is only one good frontrunner they can get out and take it wire-to-wire. Belmont isn't historically a great race for closers, and Charitable Man will certainly be out front so must be considered.
7. Mine That Bird - Horse that kind of came out of nowhere and just put together monster runs in the derby and preakness. Gets jockey back and if Preakness was this distance he would have blown by Rachel Alexandra. Appears to be begging for distance but I don't think this race sets up for him..not enough early speed and I just don't think he'll be able to repeat with another huge race...I'll be leaving out, may cost me but I think that is how you get value in this race.
8. Flying Private - Not garnering as much attention as would have if hit the board instead of just missing in 4th in the Preakness..ran a pretty monster race though after not firing at all in the Derby. That said, this is another closer I'll pass on.
9. Miner's Escape - Doesn't appear to belong on paper. Took big step forward last race and should look to get out early but won't be considered by me.
10. Brave Victory - Finished 3rd a ways back from Charitable Man in Peter Pan. Talented horse not garnering much attention at 15-1, another that could hit the board but ultimately shouldn't be much of a threat.

Obviously I think Dunkirk wins this and holds the most value. I also like Charitable Man, so I'll probably play Dunkirk to win and a 2/6 exacta box. As a longshot tri or superfecta I'll probably play something along the lines of 2/6/1,4,7,8,10. Good luck gamblers.

BCA at the OTB

Welcome to the Kingston OTB (Off-Track Betting for those of you non-loser, non-degenerate gambling low-lifes out there...a place where the scum of the Earth assembles to bet on horses) - where I found this note posted above the (naturally) broken urinal.

Many of you know (and the rest will likely soon find out) that I like to gamble. I consider myself the BCA (Best Capper Alive) and while betting the horses is my weakness, I like to think I can spot some value better than the average schmuck. So, in an effort to get my life in order this summer (and out of necessity since I am broke) I gave myself a challenge - a $25 bankroll for the OTB (Belmont Stakes next Saturday and any trips to actual race tracks not included) with the goal being to turn it into $250.

Today was Day 1 of the quest. Here is how it went.

Upon entering through the complex's magnificently dirty double-glass doors, I was greeted with a classic OTB great debate. A man with a mild mullet creeping out of an old American Choppers baseball cap (hair color best described as a peppery drab orange marmalade) and matching orange collared American Choppers button down was arguing with an approximately 275 pound, 5', former athlete, replete with back-hair and wife-beater, white high top basketball sneakers (possibly Rick Barry hand-me-downs), high slightly ruffled white socks and a walk that could only be described as: upper body battling lower body, what happens when you're too fat to waddle. The argument was over whether or not Preakness winner and filly sensation Rachel Alexandra was really a super-horse (American Choppers got diced as big man ended a 10 minute debate with the "first horse to ever win The Preakness from the 13th post" line).

And that is why I love the OTB, nothing else can turn you into a bigger scumbag while simultaneously raising your self-esteem quite like hanging out there. A quick glance around revealed an Asian man with bushy (possibly hair-sprayed) eyebrows that literally stretched as wide as his shoulder blades. An old white guy with the flip-down sunglasses/glasses that I haven't seen used as a fashion statement since Dwayne Wayne from A Different World.


There was the Hannford butcher with his Hannford smock (to be fair it was clean) on..he literally sat there for hours in the smock. At one point, in walked in a woman with a bright lime-green shirt on, voo-doo-ish beads around her neck, scraggly black gypsy hair, right arm struggling to carry a red bag. Her eyes never blinked. She walked mechanically with mouth wide-open (miraculously not drooling) and fingers stuck up both nostrils (not kidding) as she droned to no one in particular "One dollar winner instead of nothing." As she headed over to the scratch-off machine, some slightly less sad soul walked over and handed her another one dollar winning lottery ticket, as she noted "You're a sweetheart" about two minutes after he walked away and she finally processed what he had given her.

There were the Jamaican drug-lords (have literally heard them discussing drug deals or I would not accuse) who walk in with fat wads and come away from the ticket window with stacks of betting slips that would seemingly make me believe they said "Give me every horse to Win, Place and Show in every race at every track please." The one was wearing a see-through mesh jersey, colored like the Jamaican flag. They speak patois and yell words no one else can decipher before throwing all their tickets up in a mass of depreciated confetti (which will usually be scooped up by some bum who will hope a horse on a ticket was scratched and they can hand it in for a refund).

The place is littered with old men to the right, half of which are bitching about horses or jockeys while the other half bitch about their wives. Walk back ten minutes later and the half that were bitching about their wives have found a jockey or horse to bash, while the others have forgotten about that "short-shit fucking pea-brained jockey" and are now bitching about their wives.

I will spare you many of the other bizarre creatures, peculiar conversations and strange happenings. As for my results? After missing a couple early races, I placed 10 dollars worth of bets.

You guessed it, a $15 bankroll for the rest of the summer! Even my favorite filly, the greatest named horse of all-time Lemon Chiffon let me down by missing the board in the DRF Race of the Week at Hollywood. Until the next (and probably last) installment of the BCA at the OTB, good luck gamblers.